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Dubai Off-Plan: Correction or Crash? My Forecast

7 min

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Dubai home sales fell 38% in the third quarter, prices sit about 10% below their peak, and the biggest supply wave in the city’s history is still coming. Is this a correction or a crash?

In this episode, Mario gives developers the full picture of the Dubai off-plan market, with real numbers and no hype:

  • What changed after the war started at the end of February, and why buyers became careful, not absent
  • Why almost 3 out of 4 homes sold are still off-plan
  • How prices are splitting: apartments down much more than villas
  • The 2027 supply question, where forecasts range from 60,000 to more than 160,000 units
  • Two opposite developer strategies: heavy discounts versus holding price and launching megaprojects
  • What S&P Global, UBS and Emaar’s founder expect

At the end, Mario shares his own forecast for the next six months, for 2027, and for the window that could open for patient buyers.

This episode is for information only and is not financial advice.

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